Q2 2026: postpaid net account additions of 277,000 (down 13% year-over-year off a tough comp), postpaid ARPA of $152.91 (+2%), postpaid phone churn of just 0.85% — down meaningfully year-over-year and the lowest of any major U.S. carrier this quarter. Postpaid service revenue grew 13% to $15.9 billion. Management flagged Q3 net adds dropping to roughly 250,000 due to planned rate-plan changes temporarily lifting churn.
At 0.85% monthly phone churn, modeled average account lifetime runs about 118 months — nearly a decade. Applying a ~40% contribution margin to the $152.91 ARPA gives a modeled LTV near $7,200 per account. T-Mobile doesn't disclose CAC, so I modeled $500 as a reasonable assumption for blended acquisition cost per account; that implies a payback period of roughly 8 months and an LTV:CAC ratio over 14x — an extremely favorable modeled economics, which matches how durable the underlying churn number actually is.
Revenue growth read: postpaid service revenue growth (13%) is outpacing net add growth, meaning the gains are increasingly coming from existing accounts spending more, not just new ones — a healthier growth mix than pure volume.
Simplest path: T-Mobile already found this one and it's worth naming directly — "Un-carrier." One clear, simple promise (no contracts, no hidden fees, better value) repeated for over a decade, instead of a new complicated pitch every year. The lesson generalizes: pick one honest advantage and don't dilute it.
Revenue, subscriber, churn, and ARPA figures are sourced from T-Mobile's Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC filings. CAC, LTV, and payback period are my own modeled assumptions, built where T-Mobile doesn't disclose the underlying figures directly. The "simplest path" framing is my own synthesis, not a statement from T-Mobile.