Q2 2026: revenue of $12.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with full-year guidance narrowed to $51.0–51.4 billion (12–14% growth). Ad revenue is on track to roughly double in 2026 to about $3 billion, and management says ads now account for roughly a quarter of incremental revenue growth. Netflix stopped disclosing quarterly subscriber counts and ARM (average revenue per membership) back in Q1 2025, which makes this one the hardest of the four to model cleanly — I want to flag that upfront rather than pretend otherwise.
Without disclosed churn or exact ARM, any CAC/LTV figure here is more speculative than the other three. Using a rough blended ARM estimate around $12–13/month (regional estimates run from ~$17.50 in the U.S./Canada down to ~$7 in Latin America) and an assumed monthly churn in the 2.0–2.5% range common to mature streaming services, modeled average lifetime would run 40–50 months, implying an LTV somewhere in the $350–450 range at a ~35% content-adjusted margin. I'd treat that range as a rough sketch, not a confident number — Netflix's own disclosure gap is the real story here.
Revenue growth read: a clear, gradual deceleration — 18% in Q4 2025, down to 16% in Q1 2026, down to 13% in Q2 2026 — consistent with a maturing subscriber base where pricing and ads are doing more of the growth work than new membership volume.
Simplest path: stop optimizing for new subscribers and optimize for hours watched per existing one. Netflix's moat was never subscriber count — it's that once you're in, there's always something queued up. More engagement from the people already paying is a more reliable lever than finding new ones in an increasingly saturated market.
Revenue and guidance figures are sourced from Netflix's Q2 2026 shareholder letter and SEC filings. CAC, LTV, and churn are my own modeled assumptions and should be read as a rough sketch — Netflix no longer discloses subscriber counts or ARM. The "simplest path" framing is my own synthesis, not a statement from Netflix.